New Publication in ‘Aggression and Violent Behavior’ Unveils Innovative Model for Understanding Ethnic Upheavals

A groundbreaking study, "Collective Emotions, Triggering Events, and Self-Organization: The Forest-Fire Model of Cultural Identity Conflict Escalation," has been published in the journal Aggression and Violent Behavior. Authored by Felix Schulte (ECMI) and Christoph Trinn, this research presents a novel theoretical approach to understanding the dynamics of escalation periods in ethnic and religious conflicts.

The study introduces the Forest-Fire Model (FFM), which highlights the nonlinear dynamics that characterize ethnic upheavals. Unlike traditional models, the FFM emphasizes the critical role of collective emotions—such as shared anger, pride, and hope—as the primary "fuel" for spontaneous, leaderless protests and riots. These emotions are ignited by disruptive triggering events, leading to sudden and intense escalations of conflict.

The integration of these elements provides a fresh perspective on the short-term escalation dynamics in ethnic and religious conflicts, offering valuable insights for scholars, policymakers, and practitioners engaged in conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts.

This publication is a key part of the ongoing SPARK project, which aims to study conflict dynamics in multiethnic societies. The project focuses on understanding how emotional climates and cascading events contribute to the outbreak and intensification of cultural identity conflicts.

The full study is available online and can be accessed through the following link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2024.101954.

For further information about the SPARK project and related research, please visit SPARK Project.