New SPARK Publication: Exploring the Dynamics of Political Conflict and Spontaneous Collective Violence

We are excited to share a new SPARK project publication by Felix Schulte and team 'The Magnitude of Triggering Events and the Nonlinear Dynamics of Ethnic and Religious Upheavals', now available in Conflict Resolution Quarterly as part of a special issue on ‘Political Conflict and Spontaneous Collective Violence’. You can read the full article here: SPARK Publication in CRQ

In this study, Felix and the team explore how ethnic and religious upheavals are often triggered by disruptive events, and how even small disturbances can escalate into large-scale protests and riots. Through the analysis of a hand-coded dataset of 642 escalation episodes, the study finds that the magnitude or type of trigger is not what determines unrest intensity—rather, the self-organized criticality of the system means that even minor disruptions can set off large-scale violence.

The article offers valuable insights into the idiosyncratic and spontaneous nature of triggering events, highlighting the challenge of predicting when escalation will occur.

You can find more about this study and the SPARK project on our website.