Conflict dynamics
Intercommunal and self-determination conflicts often resemble the proverbial powder keg. Small triggering events can have major consequences. This research track will explore these kinds of non-linear short-term escalation dynamics in cultural identity conflicts. We will work in particular on the conceptualization, operationalization, and data generation of triggering events and escalation periods. To explain short-term escalations, special attention will be given to the role of collective emotions as necessary ‘fuel’ for sparking events. The research will remedy three prevailing shortcomings in the field: an inordinate focus on time-invariant structural factors, an overemphasis on top-down rationalist or framing approaches, and a failure to integrate collective emotions into the research on cultural identity conflicts.
Ongoing Projects
- Sparking Events, Emotional Climates, and Cascades in Cultural Identity Conflicts (funded by DFG, with C. Trinn, Heidelberg University)
SPARK analyses the short-term escalation dynamics in cultural identity conflicts on a global scale. Conflictive mass behaviour is conceptualized as “cascades”, which are understood as propagations of self-organizing conflictive mass behaviour of varying intensity and extensity. In our model, an emboldening emotional climate provides the “fuel” that is sparked by a triggering event. As an intermediate step, we expect that the activated potential translates into action through collective self-organization. By combining triggering events, collective emotions and self-organization, SPARK investigates an innovative and comprehensive explanation of the non-linear short-term escalation dynamics of collective mass behaviour in cultural identity conflicts. -
The Dynamics of Repression and Backlash: Mapping and Analysing Crimean Tatar Civil Resistance in Post-2014 Crimea (CriTaPro), with Elmira Muratova
CriTaPro investigates the causes and patterns of non-violent resistance among Crimean Tatars under Russian occupation since 2014. The project (1) documents and categorizes repression against Crimean Tatars post-annexation; (2) systematizes forms of civil resistance (protests and cultural activism) against Russian repression; and (3) analyzes how specific instances of state repression trigger non-violent resistance. CriTaPro addresses two main questions: What explains the occurrence of civilian resistance by Crimean Tatars in this high-risk environment, and what factors determine which forms of civil resistance occur at specific moments?
Events
- Workshop on “Understanding Cultural Conflict and Conflict Dynamics: The Role of Collective Emotions”
Recent Publications
- Schulte, Felix, Dogukan C. Karakus, and Ibrahim Gökburun. 2025. “Nationalist Focal Events and Anti-Minority Violence – How Soldier Funerals Spark Ethnic Riots in Turkey" European Sociological Review. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcaf031.
- Muratova, Elmira, and Felix Schulte. 2025. "Thursdays are for searches. The Russian repression calendar in occupied Crimea", KonKoop DataLab Blog.
- Schulte, Felix, and Dogukan C. Karakus 2025. “How Exposure to Wartime Violence Shapes Conflict Resolution Preferences" Conflict Management and Peace Science. https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942251334956
- Schulte, Felix, and Marzia Raza. 2025. “Ein Kausalmodell zur Erklärung von nicht- linearen Eskalationsdynamiken ethnischer Konflikte: Selbstorganisation, kollektive Emotionen und Triggerereignisse” Konfliktdynamik. 14(1): 39–47. https://doi.org/10.5771/2193-0147-2025-1-39
- Schulte, Felix, and Christoph Trinn. 2025. “The Magnitude of Triggering Events and the Nonlinear Dynamics of Ethnic and Religious Upheavals” Conflict Resolution Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1002/crq.21478
- Schulte, Felix, and Christoph Trinn. 2024. “Collective Emotions, Triggering Events, and Self-Organization: The Forest-Fire Model of Cultural Identity Conflict Escalation.” Aggression and Violent Behavior 78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2024.101954
- Maerz, Seraphine F., Felix Schulte, and Christoph Trinn. 2024. “Autocratization and Political Conflict.” In The Routledge Handbook of Autocratization, Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003306900-35
- Schulte, Felix, and Christoph V. Steinert. 2023. “Repression and Backlash Protests: Why Leader Arrests Backfire.” International Interactions 49(1): 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2023.2149513
- Schulte, Felix. 2023. “On the Dynamics of Secessionist Conflict.” In Cittadinanza e Separatismi: Esperienze e Prospettive in Europa, ed. Giammaria Milani. Milano: Wolters Kluwer, 1–23.
Working Papers
- Schulte, Felix., Elmira Muratova. 2025. “Patterns and Drivers of Repression against Crimean Tatars: Evidence from a new dataset (2014-2024)”.
- Schulte, Felix, Dogukan C. Karakus, and Eric Skoog. 2025: “How Moral Violations Spark Ethnic Mobilization: Experimental Evidence from Turkey”.
- Schulte, Felix., Elmira Muratova. 2025. “Little Green Men and Jobs for the Boys. How Repression Affects Co-optation in Post-Annexation Crimea”.
